I agree SB....
But as Moochy pointed out, the system that we have REQUIRES this kind of rapid turnover of "stuff".
More to the point, I would phrase it like this:
--The IMF has set as a realistic goal the growth of economy at 2.5% per year. This number is considered conservative, and most of the major players like the US or China shoot for much faster growth.....what this means is that EACH person is supposed to consume 2.5% more than they did last year, whether in human or ecological capital.
--Projecting this out to the year 2050 and compounding the numbers, this means that the economy is targeted to be THREE TIMES the rate of right now, EVEN if the population did not increase at all.
-- Most conservative estimates of resource depletion report that we are currently using resources at about 140% of the available land on Earth. This means that given an estimate of population of 10.5 billion by then, add in the fantastical 2.5% growth (that most banksters say will be more like 4 or 5%),this projects taking land and resources at about 500 to 700% the rate of the current speed.
-- Things like your iPhone, LCD televisions, electric batteries, all of these are made using heavy metals that are also, guess what, becoming much harder to find. This is leaving out the big stuff like arable land, oil, clean water, etc....even the so-called high tech stuff that is going to save us must come from somewhere.
-- It is 100% true that technology will continue to have a positive effect in extracting more resources. Improved oil drilling methods, fracking for natural gas, new farming techniques, all of this will HELP in expanding our ability to produce.
But here is the thing:
NO one with a calculator and functioning brain cells has been able to hypothesize that any of this so-called "growth" will actually happen....at some point the costs will become to high, things to expensive to produce and make profit, that all of society will be disrupted. No one honestly believes our planet can handle the amount we are projecting to take from it, period.
My point is that likely in my lifetime, if not definitely in my children's, the music is going to stop. It will not happen all at once, it will not be a dramatic "Doomsday Preppers" collapse....it will be a plateauing, slow and fast drop in ALL of this shit that we have built our "culture" on. Things like everyone having their own internal combustion engines, weighing a ton each to transport them, everyone having limitless electricity, limitless everything, all of that will stop. That is not wacky tin-foil hattery. That is math. The numbers above do not allow for output X given input Y.
We are in the Goldilocks zone right now, hopefully for about ten more years....enough technology and resources to still give a decent quality of life to about 20% of the world's population, but not yet enough scarcity to bring it all down, but it is on the way. It will, within a few decades, be more like about 2% of the population with our modern "Growth", whilst all the rest are essentially back in the 1800's....the way my grandparents talk about how hard it was "back in the day" will likely be reversed for my own grandchildren. I will be sitting around telling them about how great things used to be, how I could run my lights as much as I wanted, drive myself or fly myself anywhere, eat mangos in Vermont in February, and it will all seem just as otherworldly as the Great Depression does to me. Again, it is just math.
So I say enjoy it. It won't be here forever.
For more on the math of this, look into the lectures and articles by Paul Gilding. NOT a wacko crackpot, but rather an Oxford educated futurist that has spoken before many Fortune 500 companies, Harvard, Apple, etc.
Last edited by TheyCallMeLazarus; 12-07-2013 at 05:45 PM.
"They now look to a single and splendid government of an aristocracy, founded on banking institutions, and moneyed incorporations under the guise and cloak of their favored branches of manufactures, commerce and navigation, riding and ruling over the plundered ploughman and beggared yeomanry." - Thomas Jefferson, 1826