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  1. #121
    Scott F's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cryptocode View Post
    Ionly listened to the first 6 chapters of the first film, it was way too slow. But the second was very interesting. I'd never thought about net energy before, or combined it with the other factors: population, food, complexity, etc. Thank you.

    It does reinforce my future view, and I'm glad that my family is pretty well prepared. I believe our money is going to colapse within this decade.
    Here's what I have on oil:
    The world uses 88 million barrels per day. What does that look like? Picture this many 55-gallon steel drums

    1 barrel is 42 gallons
    a steel drum is 3 feet tall
    a mile is 5,280 feet
    the circumference of the earth is 24,901 miles

    first convert 42gal barres into 55gal steel drums. (Only because everyone knows what a 55gal drum looks like)
    (88,000,000bbl x 42gal) / 55gal = 67,200,000 steel drums of oil are consumed each day

    Lay those 3 feet tall steel drums on their side and stack them end to end as if making a pipeline of drums. How many miles long will 67,200,000 drums stretch?

    (67,200,000 x 3ft) / 5280 = 38,182 miles

    Since the circumference of the earth is 24,901 ,miles the daily consumption of crude oil would fill enough steel drums capable of stretching 1 1/2 times (1.53 times) around the earth....every day. 38,182/ 24,901 = 1.53.
    In one year you could encircle the earth ~560 times with steel drums. The US consumes 25% of that oil.....

    And people want to believe...Obama when he said: yes we can go to advanced biofuels and get off imports with in 10 years. Sure we can...and I have a bridge I'd like to sell.

    But here's an even bigger problem that politicians aren't talking about with regards to oil. In the IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 the International Energy association calculated the decline rate on existing conventional oilfields. They used 800 of the world's largest fields in production and calculated their annual decline rate of 6.7%. Their conclusion was that the global oil industry needs to find and put online 4 new Saudi Arabias by 2030 simply to keep oil production at it current capacity (to offset the decline). However, to meet the the increasing demand from developing countries and expand economic growth the IEA estmates 6 new Saudi Arabias worth of oil needs to be put online. That's a new Saudi Arabia, roughly, every 4 years needs to be put online. Think that's going to happen?

    How many people (esp young college people) who even bothered to read this far have a clue what I just wrote? Here's the problem, too many clueless voters know more about Snooky than how the gasoline (and every other oil-based product they use) gets from the field to their markets.

    Officially, the IEA states conventional oil production (the cheap stuff) peaked in 2006. The volumes of oil to replace the declining conventional stuff will come from unconventional sources such as Offshore Deep Drilling, Tar Sands, and Shale Oil (and Shale Gas). It's doable but it's going to be a lot more expensive to the consumer since the cost of drilling and producing these wells cost a lot more...and that cost has to be passed along to the consumer in the form of higher gasoline and petroleum product costs..or those well won't get drilled.

    In short, I expect the cost of living for my kids and grandchildren will go more and more to energy costs. I've told them to expect to live in smaller houses, travels less, ect. IOW over time I expect a declining economy and not a growing one capable of funding the National Debts.
    Last edited by Scott F; 01-26-2013 at 10:28 AM.
    Would I be putting a grain-feed cow on a fad diet if I took it out of the feedlot and put it on pasture eating the grass nature intended?

  2. #122
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    88 million barrels a day used to keep our economies as they are right now.

    1 barrel of oil = 23,200 man hours of work or put differently, each barrel of oil does the work equivalent (8 hour shift of manual labor) of 2900 people.

    SO

    The world economy is using the equivalent of 255 BILLION PEOPLE's work output to keep us going right now. Sobering, isn't it?
    "It's a great life, if you don't weaken.". John Buchan

  3. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scott F View Post
    I would suggest you go back to Crash Course and watch the chapters 17a, 17b, and 17c, 18, and 19
    Yes, thanks. Arghhhhhhhhh! And then - the following was not included. Corn-based ethanol requires 7 gallons of water to produce 1 gallon of oil. Corn is the most water-expensive, but even the least water expensive is 5 to 1. And this biomass is being grown in an area in which draughts are common and it's acquifer is nearly dry.

    I wouldn't mind going back to the 50's or 40's, but it won't be like that becuase there are far too many people to be supported. Instead the changes will be miserable. And they will be made far, far worse by the Gov'ts refusal to accept reality.
    Last edited by Cryptocode; 01-26-2013 at 05:40 PM.

  4. #124
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    Him It's the head tax. It could also be viewed as buying a "share" which pays dividends to the shareholder, but is limited to one share per head. The dividends could either be money or a portion of the output from the automated factories and farms.

    So, do I understand correctly, if I have a child I must pay a head tax of an amount of money whose dividends at the then current rate of interest would support the child for it's entire life. Boy would that reduce the population fast, especially if everyone alive had to pay a pro-rata share at the instigation of this policy.

    Because our worthless money has increasing negative value over time, the head tax paid for my life would be insufficient before I was old enough to give birth.

    Alternatively, if those without current sufficient tax paid did remain in the country but not be allowed to vote, soon a very small minority of voters would control the country. That would be much worse than the inaccurate stories of the robber-baron period.

    I don't see that this policy will work.

    Except for HIM, we are getting very negative. At least we have one optimist.
    Last edited by Cryptocode; 01-26-2013 at 05:41 PM.

  5. #125
    Scott F's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by itchy166 View Post
    88 million barrels a day used to keep our economies as they are right now.

    1 barrel of oil = 23,200 man hours of work or put differently, each barrel of oil does the work equivalent (8 hour shift of manual labor) of 2900 people.

    SO

    The world economy is using the equivalent of 255 BILLION PEOPLE's work output to keep us going right now. Sobering, isn't it?
    Yeah it is. I may have to use that....you're welcome to use my math too.
    Would I be putting a grain-feed cow on a fad diet if I took it out of the feedlot and put it on pasture eating the grass nature intended?

  6. #126
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    It's kind of hard to be optimistic with these figures.

    I second Scott's recommendation of the Crash Course.

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by itchy166 View Post
    1 barrel of oil = 23,200 man hours of work or put differently, each barrel of oil does the work equivalent (8 hour shift of manual labor) of 2900 people.

    SO

    The world economy is using the equivalent of 255 BILLION PEOPLE's work output to keep us going right now. Sobering, isn't it?
    I just watched the documentary 'King Corn', 2007. Revolting. The corn grown in Iowa today is not edible by humans. We've gone from 40 Bu/Ac to 200 Bu/Ac and from edible to inedible. Also from 50 ac farm to 1000 ac farms. No doubt run by ConAgi with Monsanto seed. This corn actually poisons the cows that eat it, the humans that drink it, and the land that grows it. You all know this, I'm just learning it.

    So we've spend our oil and gas and land resources well into the future.

    I like my ideal future of local. Small towns and villages surrounded by family farms that grow real food.
    Last edited by Cryptocode; 01-28-2013 at 02:35 PM.

  8. #128
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    HIM

    Did you continue buying GFB from Eden Tropics after your 2010 purchase as a gift. We've bought 1/2 a cow from there and find it tasty but VERY tough, and the worst butchering job I've ever seen.

  9. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by itchy166 View Post
    The only way to fight is to do your best to not participate. Localism and self-reliance is our only real defense.
    I wouldn't describe this as "fighting". There's an old anarchist saw about freedom of speech. You stand on a street corner handing out flyers, nobody cares. If you gather a group of people to hand out flyers, the cops show up.

    Individualism is nothing in the face of power. That's why all the 2nd Amendment stuff about fighting off government tyranny is mostly blather. That's no threat to the government. If the authorities came to your house, all your NRA card-holder neighbors wouldn't lift a finger.

    Spout on the internet, polish an AR-15 in your basement, grew your own green beans, stockpile rice and gold bars -- it won't change a thing. Never has.

    But Power shakes easily at organization. Naturally, since organization is where the Power draws their strength.

    As to oil: I wouldn't worry about it. Oil is getting scarcer. But it's not as simple as that. There's a price dynamic at play. As the price goes up so does the viability of previously uneconimically-recoverable sources. As does alternative forms of energy. And we have a shit-ton of coal. We may have a few years of rising energy costs but then will see renewables fall in price as demand starts to crater with falling population. Forget Malthus, he was a shill for the rich, telling them they wanted to hear, that the poor were so poor because they bred too quickly.

  10. #130
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    Spout on the internet, polish an AR-15 in your basement, grew your own green beans, stockpile rice and gold bars -- it won't change a thing. Never has.

    But power shakes easily at organization. Naturally, since organization is where the power draws their strength.
    if a rat is caught by an eagle, that rat has lost its power and freedom; and yet, a great many rats remain free, and exercise great power in their respective niches.
    "Ah, those endless forests, and their horror-haunted gloom! For what eternities have I wandered through them, a timid, hunted creature, starting at the least sound, frightened of my own shadow, keyed-up, ever alert and vigilant, ready on the instant to dash away in mad flight for my life. For I was the prey of all manner of fierce life that dwelt in the forest, and it was in ecstasies of fear that I fled before the hunting monsters."

    Jack london, "Before Adam"

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