As for your first point, I think you make sense. Basically, the educated people in a given area are the agenda setters for the rest of that area. Whichever side (liberal/conservative) that the educated people swing, that is where the total population will be because they are lemmings.
I disagree though because I think we are not isolated communities anymore. The TV, movies, social networking, blogs, websites, and video games are all sending messages, and they are being sent to every corner of the nation. Actually, make that 'world' to a certain extent. Our interconnectedness has strong leverage on the minds of everyone. So to borrow from your point, if the media is liberal: the dumb people, the leaderless people, the activityless people, the less connected with themselves people will follow and be liberal too.
I somewhat hesitate to argue 'liberal/conservative' without explaining which definitions I am using for these words. There are many. I support old liberalism, but not the new kind. Instead of blabbering, here's a link that states it for me.
The Whited Sepulchre: Liberal vs. Libertarian
I think actualized humans basically want to be libertarians. In other words, we all want personal and economic liberty. This is an element of Wisdom, not 'Conventional Wisdom' that I spoke of in the first paragraph. Humans want to be healthy, so they naturally crave meats, fresh fruits, etc. This is wisdom, not CW. CW is my term for bad wisdom that is thrown around these days. I hope you catch my drift. These terms can get confusing, but I chose them because they are the vernacular.On Libertarian Reddit, someone posed the question "What's the difference between Liberal vs. Libertarian?"
Here's the best answer:
I'm not sure if this relates to what you mean, but "liberal" used mean what libertarian means today, but the socialists co-opted the word, and so in now the USA "liberal" means socialism-lite.
Anyhow, to understand the false dichotomy between "liberal" and "conservative" you need to understand it's a divide and conquer strategy. Take those who believe very strongly in personal property rights over their body, and the right to do what they want with their bodies, and play them as enemies against those who believe very strongly in private property rights that are external to the body, and who believe they have the right to use their property in any peaceful way they see fit. And then try to sideline and treat like a loon, anybody who believes in both.
So today the liberals tend to believe very strongly in personal rights, but tend not to give a shit about economic liberties, and today the conservatives tend to believe rather strongly in economic liberties, but tend not to give a shit about personal liberties, and the libertarians believe in both personal liberties, and economic liberties. So in that sense, the conservatives try to treat the libertarians as liberal enemies, and the liberals try to treat libertarians as ultra conservative right-wing enemies. And libertarians tend to think of conservatives and liberals, well, as the same, not giving a shit about peoples' freedoms.
PS- that last paragraph is the story of my life. My liberal friends see me as conservative, my conservative friends see me as liberal.