Gravyboat's Log, Stardate 59575.1 page 75

[Gravyboat]

Back down to 204! Still sick, but I made it to choir thanks to a very nice woman who offered to give me a ride.

Love that choir! Everyone's so nice.

[Crabbcakes]

Glad you made it to choir! Playing my instrument saved my sanity and made me very happy for years. Good stuff.

[Crabbcakes]

Just wanted to tell you that I was thinking of you this morning. Third and I will be in North Royalton/Broadview, just south of you - she picks up her new glasses and goes to vision therapy this morning. (My Third is getting bifocals - as an 11 year old. Now perhaps people will cut me a little slack when I tell them that she has a totally proper and official low vision diagnosis, 'cause your vision must stink if you are wearing bifocals at that age, right??)

Hope you are doing well!

[Gravyboat]

Attention readers: Hope you are all having a nice day. Just wanted to check in and say FUCK THE AIR SHOW!!!!!!!

[Gravyboat]

Also, I spent today making a predictive weight loss graph for myself based on what has already transpired. I entered in the data from the body fat percentage readings I have taken so far, and then extrapolated from there. I also made a simple predictive clothing size chart for myself a while back that has been very accurate so far and is based on 12.5lbs per size assuming a continued steady BF% change over time. This graph incorporates that data.

So here's that. (Mouse over it -- it's interactive. Clothing sizes are multiplied by 10 for easier viewing.)

The last real data point is today (August 30th). The rest is extrapolation. Based on this, I expect to hit 200 around Sept 20th, and should be around 195 by Oct 15th (my birthday). At January 1st, I expect 180lbs, and I should be just about to cross under 20% body fat at that point.

I've been aiming at 160lbs as my goal publicly, but in my head I've been looking at 18% BF and size 8-10. I know it seems like a low body fat percentage, but I feel like I will need to get rid of every scrap of fat I can in order to facilitate skin tightening. Especially on my upper arms. Anyway, based on this chart, 160lbs will put me at 17% BF and size 8. So it might be a bit low. But we'll see what happens.

I'm glad I did this, because it seems to indicate that my 160-by-January-1st goal is probably unrealistic. 180 seems much more doable, and this ensures that I won't be disappointed as long as I continue just as I have been (which is what I intend to do). Sucks that I may have several more months to go than I thought, but 4 months out of my life is honestly not a big deal. Also, my skin will fare better if go slowly. I also know now not to buy winter goal clothes preemptively, because it will probably be getting warm by the time I am ready to wear them. And, in that vein, I can see that I will probably want to buy a size 12 coat for this winter, as I will most likely be spanning sizes 10-14. That's helpful, because I really had no idea what to plan for previously.

Predictive data is so awesome.

[Pebbles67]

Nice. Wish i could predict my behavior enough to be able to do that. I'm proud of you for staying on track.

[Owly]

That is super nerdy. And I mean that in a totally positive way.

[Gravyboat]

I'm proud of you for staying on track.

Who would have guessed when I joined this forum back in January, amirite? I wasn't even sure this primal thing would work for me.

That is super nerdy. And I mean that in a totally positive way.

That's how I roll. Also, I was super excited (like only a nerd would be) that the data points formed such a perfect line. I had no idea they would until I graphed them. Made my toes curl a little.

[Crabbcakes]

Oh, wow. Mr. Crabbcakes would just love it if I would do something like that. I call him the Excel King, partly because he can make the thing calculate complicated stuff so fast that you can't follow it (for his job), but mostly because he likes to chart his retirement account blips (and also the mortgage payment minutia of any house he takes a fancy to on the MLS or wherever) just for fun. People with number-brains... sigh.

I can see where this would be useful to you (as you explained it and all). How about collecting your data points all winter and comparing in the spring real vs projected??

[Gravyboat]

How about collecting your data points all winter and comparing in the spring real vs projected??

I plan on it.