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[QUOTE=Crabbcakes;1075079]Hey itchy! How's the Primal food thing going out at the job site?
Okay - how about this question? Leaving all kinds of posturing, arguing, and pissing matches about whose expert predictions are valid or not aside... How long, roughly, in your humble opinion, do we have before North America runs out of petroleum to tap, by whatever methods you deem possible? I am 45 - assuming I live until 100, which I hope and plan to do, will it be before, at, or after my century mark? And no, I have no plans to do the "itchy said this" thing. I just really enjoy asking you questions.[/QUOTE]
Its not as straightforward a question as you think.
We are not going to run out of oil here or anywhere else in the world in this lifetime. But that isnt the important part of the story. We have already passed the point where we can add daily production in any meaningful way (worldwide anyway).
We will see a mini-boom of production here in North America based on the results of all the shale oil/gas that we are currently drilling like crazy to access. Daily production may go up for a little while, but any new production will be off-set by declines in the world's biggest fields.
In my opinion, the great recession of 2008 (that we never really came out of btw), was a direct result of the fact that world-wide oil production is no longer increasing. Any so called economic recovery is all smoke and mirrors at this point.
I believe the world's economies will stay in a state of slow but steady decline for the next decade, followed by accelerated decline. Poorer countries will collapse first (like Greece).
Meanwhile, the oil companies and world governments will continue to drill like madmen trying to prolong the current output, but ultimately they will fail. We will still have oil, but we will not have enough to grow, and eventually we will not have enough to maintain our current wealth. It is extremely likely that we will see a very large (or world) war over resources.
BTW, I saw that you commented on the Arab Spring in the "Paleo and Politics" thread. I believe that the Arab Spring is a direct result of food inflation. The food inflation that the world is experiencing is a direct offshoot of the 2008 recession and the inability to increase oil production. The results of these government overthrows will ultimately fail to help the populations. Food is expensive and will continue to become more so in the world, regardless of which government is in control.
But hey, I'm an optimist!
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Dear journal, it was -43 celsius (-45 F) with the windchill at work last night. If the "thermogenic effect" has any merit, I probably weigh 98 lbs this morning.
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[QUOTE=itchy166;1076684]BTW, I saw that you commented on the Arab Spring in the "Paleo and Politics" thread.[/QUOTE]
Whoa, seriously?! I will go and immediately check, because I never, ever comment on those kinds of threads, and unless I have some kind of unrecognized amnesia, I didn't. Thanks for mentioning it!
And thanks for your thorough replies. I truly do appreciate them!
Would you happen to know where most of the petroleum goes? Is it plastics, or gasoline/heating oil/fuel production, or energy for perhaps various factories, or military/defense? I think most of it goes to light the megalopolises of this planet... (Not really, but I have wondered this about electricity - out here we belong to an electrical coop and our power mainly comes from a power plant down by the Ohio River that still runs off of coal.)
Ridiculously warm here as of my post to you, actually 56F. Ohio once had a cold snap of heroic dimensions that came via you Canadians ( :) ) - minus 20F actual temp. I remember because I was in junior high school and still delivered my Sunday newspapers through that. Although my dad had to drive me for safety's sake. And that is where I discovered that mascara can indeed freeze on your eyelashes and then run down your face like Goth tears the second you get back inside.
Stay warm, itchy!
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[QUOTE=Crabbcakes;1076846]Whoa, seriously?! I will go and immediately check, because I never, ever comment on those kinds of threads, and unless I have some kind of unrecognized amnesia, I didn't. Thanks for mentioning it!
LOL, there is a strong possibility I got a little confused. Nightshift messes with the head a little. Anyway, the conversation touched on oil and gas over there for a minute as well.
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[QUOTE=Crabbcakes;1076846]
Would you happen to know where most of the petroleum goes? Is it plastics, or gasoline/heating oil/fuel production, or energy for perhaps various factories, or military/defense? I think most of it goes to light the megalopolises of this planet... (Not really, but I have wondered this about electricity - out here we belong to an electrical coop and our power mainly comes from a power plant down by the Ohio River that still runs off of coal.)[/QUOTE]
World Oil usage:
Production of gasoline (47%);
Heating oil and diesel fuel (23%);
Petrochemical feedstock for the manufacturing of chemicals, synthetic rubber, and plastics (18%);
Jet fuel (10%);
Propane (4%); and
Asphalt (3%).
The United States department of defense uses approx 360,000 barrels of oil a day, it is the single largest oil customer in the world. I couldn't find a number for the total military usage of energy for all of the world's armies combined. You will notice that the numbers above add up to 105%, that's because refining actually increases the volume.
Natural Gas usage:
Electric power (glossary term) generation (26.4%),
Industrial use (30.3%),
Residential use (21.6%),
Commercial use (13.9%),
Lease and plant fuel consumption (5%),
Pipeline and distribution (2.6%), and
Vehicle use (0.1%)
Lease and plant fuel consumption and pipeline and distribution numbers are percentages used up by the oil and gas industry themselves. Also of note that "industrial usage" includes the production of artificial fertilizers. If the production of artificial fertilizer was broken out from other industrial use it would account for 5% all on its own.
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Day 29. I skipped breakfast, Oh MY!! Last meal was yesterday at 19:30 first one today at 13:00. 17.5hrs without food, comfortably. Before Primal, not a chance.
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[QUOTE=itchy166;1078392]Day 29. I skipped breakfast, Oh MY!! Last meal was yesterday at 19:30 first one today at 13:00. 17.5hrs without food, comfortably. Before Primal, not a chance.[/QUOTE]
Being fat-adapted is the absolute BEST THING EVER! My best cousin in the whole, wide world is a veg yoga instructor, who told me recently that she has to eat every 3 hours or she feels ill. Sigh.
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Isn't it cool? I IF'd for 16 hours today without even realizing it. Worked out fasted, too. This would have killed me when I ate SAD. Or I would have killed somebody else!
Thanks for all this info on oil. You have a way of explaining a complicated thing in an easy-to-understand way.
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So I have completed one month of Primal living. Here is what Primal has meant for me so far:
- No grains
- No dairy other than butter
- No alcohol
- No sugar
- No processed food
- No potato or other starchy vegetables
My adherence has been much better than 80/20. Even when away and eating in camps or restaurants, I am closer to 95/5. At home I am 100%. My food intake has hovered around 3000 calories per day. 60% fat, 30% protein, 10% carbs. I take 4000 IU per day of Vit D, and high quality cod liver oil
Also,
- While home, I have returned to the gym after a couple year hiatus - doing Stronglifts 5X5
- While away for work, I have started Convict Conditioning ( I spend approx half my time on either program)
- While at work, I have returned to being a more "hands-on" supervisor, getting out from behind my desk and doing MUCH more physical work than I had been doing for the last few years
Here are my results:
- Migraines are gone
- Depression and panic disorders lifting
- No GI troubles
- Incredible improvement in energy levels
Stats:
- Down 10 lbs
- lost 3.5 inches around waist
- lost 0.5 inches around hips
- lost 1.0 inches around chest
- GAINED 0.5 inches around thigh
- GAINED 1.0 inches around biceps!! (I do NO arm specific work)
Needless to say, I LOVE being a Caveman!!!
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Feb 4. 2:00pm
I am still working the night shift, stuck in Whitecourt, Alberta. I'm managing to stay 100% Primal as far as the eating goes, but my sleep and my workouts are suffering big-time!
12 hour shifts, with an hour and a half drive each way to location is getting fairly tiring. I've stopped doing Convict Conditioning until my days get a bit shorter and I get more sleep. I'm currently only getting about 6 hours of interrupted sleep. I think trying to get more rest is more important than the work-out until my schedule improves.
I've been living on canned fish and seafood, nuts, and coconut milk (which I am now out of). Oh, and coffee, lots of coffee...
