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  • Originally posted by Cryptocode View Post
    Ionly listened to the first 6 chapters of the first film, it was way too slow. But the second was very interesting. I'd never thought about net energy before, or combined it with the other factors: population, food, complexity, etc. Thank you.

    It does reinforce my future view, and I'm glad that my family is pretty well prepared. I believe our money is going to colapse within this decade.
    Here's what I have on oil:
    The world uses 88 million barrels per day. What does that look like? Picture this many 55-gallon steel drums

    1 barrel is 42 gallons
    a steel drum is 3 feet tall
    a mile is 5,280 feet
    the circumference of the earth is 24,901 miles

    first convert 42gal barres into 55gal steel drums. (Only because everyone knows what a 55gal drum looks like)
    (88,000,000bbl x 42gal) / 55gal = 67,200,000 steel drums of oil are consumed each day

    Lay those 3 feet tall steel drums on their side and stack them end to end as if making a pipeline of drums. How many miles long will 67,200,000 drums stretch?

    (67,200,000 x 3ft) / 5280 = 38,182 miles

    Since the circumference of the earth is 24,901 ,miles the daily consumption of crude oil would fill enough steel drums capable of stretching 1 1/2 times (1.53 times) around the earth....every day. 38,182/ 24,901 = 1.53.
    In one year you could encircle the earth ~560 times with steel drums. The US consumes 25% of that oil.....

    And people want to believe...Obama when he said: yes we can go to advanced biofuels and get off imports with in 10 years. Sure we can...and I have a bridge I'd like to sell.

    But here's an even bigger problem that politicians aren't talking about with regards to oil. In the IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 the International Energy association calculated the decline rate on existing conventional oilfields. They used 800 of the world's largest fields in production and calculated their annual decline rate of 6.7%. Their conclusion was that the global oil industry needs to find and put online 4 new Saudi Arabias by 2030 simply to keep oil production at it current capacity (to offset the decline). However, to meet the the increasing demand from developing countries and expand economic growth the IEA estmates 6 new Saudi Arabias worth of oil needs to be put online. That's a new Saudi Arabia, roughly, every 4 years needs to be put online. Think that's going to happen?

    How many people (esp young college people) who even bothered to read this far have a clue what I just wrote? Here's the problem, too many clueless voters know more about Snooky than how the gasoline (and every other oil-based product they use) gets from the field to their markets.

    Officially, the IEA states conventional oil production (the cheap stuff) peaked in 2006. The volumes of oil to replace the declining conventional stuff will come from unconventional sources such as Offshore Deep Drilling, Tar Sands, and Shale Oil (and Shale Gas). It's doable but it's going to be a lot more expensive to the consumer since the cost of drilling and producing these wells cost a lot more...and that cost has to be passed along to the consumer in the form of higher gasoline and petroleum product costs..or those well won't get drilled.

    In short, I expect the cost of living for my kids and grandchildren will go more and more to energy costs. I've told them to expect to live in smaller houses, travels less, ect. IOW over time I expect a declining economy and not a growing one capable of funding the National Debts.
    Last edited by Scott F; 01-26-2013, 11:28 AM.
    Would I be putting a grain-feed cow on a fad diet if I took it out of the feedlot and put it on pasture eating the grass nature intended?

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    • 88 million barrels a day used to keep our economies as they are right now.

      1 barrel of oil = 23,200 man hours of work or put differently, each barrel of oil does the work equivalent (8 hour shift of manual labor) of 2900 people.

      SO

      The world economy is using the equivalent of 255 BILLION PEOPLE's work output to keep us going right now. Sobering, isn't it?
      "It's a great life, if you don't weaken.". John Buchan

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Scott F View Post
        I would suggest you go back to Crash Course and watch the chapters 17a, 17b, and 17c, 18, and 19
        Yes, thanks. Arghhhhhhhhh! And then - the following was not included. Corn-based ethanol requires 7 gallons of water to produce 1 gallon of oil. Corn is the most water-expensive, but even the least water expensive is 5 to 1. And this biomass is being grown in an area in which draughts are common and it's acquifer is nearly dry.

        I wouldn't mind going back to the 50's or 40's, but it won't be like that becuase there are far too many people to be supported. Instead the changes will be miserable. And they will be made far, far worse by the Gov'ts refusal to accept reality.
        Last edited by Cryptocode; 01-26-2013, 06:40 PM.
        "When the search for truth is confused with political advocacy, the pursuit of knowledge is reduced to the quest for power." - Alston Chase

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        • Him It's the head tax. It could also be viewed as buying a "share" which pays dividends to the shareholder, but is limited to one share per head. The dividends could either be money or a portion of the output from the automated factories and farms.

          So, do I understand correctly, if I have a child I must pay a head tax of an amount of money whose dividends at the then current rate of interest would support the child for it's entire life. Boy would that reduce the population fast, especially if everyone alive had to pay a pro-rata share at the instigation of this policy.

          Because our worthless money has increasing negative value over time, the head tax paid for my life would be insufficient before I was old enough to give birth.

          Alternatively, if those without current sufficient tax paid did remain in the country but not be allowed to vote, soon a very small minority of voters would control the country. That would be much worse than the inaccurate stories of the robber-baron period.

          I don't see that this policy will work.

          Except for HIM, we are getting very negative. At least we have one optimist.
          Last edited by Cryptocode; 01-26-2013, 06:41 PM.
          "When the search for truth is confused with political advocacy, the pursuit of knowledge is reduced to the quest for power." - Alston Chase

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          • Originally posted by itchy166 View Post
            88 million barrels a day used to keep our economies as they are right now.

            1 barrel of oil = 23,200 man hours of work or put differently, each barrel of oil does the work equivalent (8 hour shift of manual labor) of 2900 people.

            SO

            The world economy is using the equivalent of 255 BILLION PEOPLE's work output to keep us going right now. Sobering, isn't it?
            Yeah it is. I may have to use that....you're welcome to use my math too.
            Would I be putting a grain-feed cow on a fad diet if I took it out of the feedlot and put it on pasture eating the grass nature intended?

            Comment


            • It's kind of hard to be optimistic with these figures.

              I second Scott's recommendation of the Crash Course.
              Life is death. We all take turns. It's sacred to eat during our turn and be eaten when our turn is over. RichMahogany.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by itchy166 View Post
                1 barrel of oil = 23,200 man hours of work or put differently, each barrel of oil does the work equivalent (8 hour shift of manual labor) of 2900 people.

                SO

                The world economy is using the equivalent of 255 BILLION PEOPLE's work output to keep us going right now. Sobering, isn't it?
                I just watched the documentary 'King Corn', 2007. Revolting. The corn grown in Iowa today is not edible by humans. We've gone from 40 Bu/Ac to 200 Bu/Ac and from edible to inedible. Also from 50 ac farm to 1000 ac farms. No doubt run by ConAgi with Monsanto seed. This corn actually poisons the cows that eat it, the humans that drink it, and the land that grows it. You all know this, I'm just learning it.

                So we've spend our oil and gas and land resources well into the future.

                I like my ideal future of local. Small towns and villages surrounded by family farms that grow real food.
                Last edited by Cryptocode; 01-28-2013, 03:35 PM.
                "When the search for truth is confused with political advocacy, the pursuit of knowledge is reduced to the quest for power." - Alston Chase

                Comment


                • HIM

                  Did you continue buying GFB from Eden Tropics after your 2010 purchase as a gift. We've bought 1/2 a cow from there and find it tasty but VERY tough, and the worst butchering job I've ever seen.
                  "When the search for truth is confused with political advocacy, the pursuit of knowledge is reduced to the quest for power." - Alston Chase

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by itchy166 View Post
                    The only way to fight is to do your best to not participate. Localism and self-reliance is our only real defense.
                    I wouldn't describe this as "fighting". There's an old anarchist saw about freedom of speech. You stand on a street corner handing out flyers, nobody cares. If you gather a group of people to hand out flyers, the cops show up.

                    Individualism is nothing in the face of power. That's why all the 2nd Amendment stuff about fighting off government tyranny is mostly blather. That's no threat to the government. If the authorities came to your house, all your NRA card-holder neighbors wouldn't lift a finger.

                    Spout on the internet, polish an AR-15 in your basement, grew your own green beans, stockpile rice and gold bars -- it won't change a thing. Never has.

                    But Power shakes easily at organization. Naturally, since organization is where the Power draws their strength.

                    As to oil: I wouldn't worry about it. Oil is getting scarcer. But it's not as simple as that. There's a price dynamic at play. As the price goes up so does the viability of previously uneconimically-recoverable sources. As does alternative forms of energy. And we have a shit-ton of coal. We may have a few years of rising energy costs but then will see renewables fall in price as demand starts to crater with falling population. Forget Malthus, he was a shill for the rich, telling them they wanted to hear, that the poor were so poor because they bred too quickly.

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                    • Spout on the internet, polish an AR-15 in your basement, grew your own green beans, stockpile rice and gold bars -- it won't change a thing. Never has.

                      But power shakes easily at organization. Naturally, since organization is where the power draws their strength.
                      if a rat is caught by an eagle, that rat has lost its power and freedom; and yet, a great many rats remain free, and exercise great power in their respective niches.
                      "Ah, those endless forests, and their horror-haunted gloom! For what eternities have I wandered through them, a timid, hunted creature, starting at the least sound, frightened of my own shadow, keyed-up, ever alert and vigilant, ready on the instant to dash away in mad flight for my life. For I was the prey of all manner of fierce life that dwelt in the forest, and it was in ecstasies of fear that I fled before the hunting monsters."

                      Jack london, "Before Adam"

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                      • Originally posted by Mr.Perfidy View Post
                        if a rat is caught by an eagle, that rat has lost its power and freedom; and yet, a great many rats remain free
                        Free to continue scurrying from eagles.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Rojo View Post
                          Spout on the internet, polish an AR-15 in your basement, grew your own green beans, stockpile rice and gold bars -- it won't change a thing. Never has.
                          You know, if one person, just one person does it they may think he's really sick and they'll tazer him. And if two people, two people do it, in unison, they may think they're both faggots and take them out and beat them. But if three people, three, can you imagine, three people polishing their AR-15s and building their greenbean stockpile? They may think it's an organization. And, can you, can you imagine fifty people a day, I said fifty people a day polishing their AR-15s and buying gold bars and Galting out? And friends they may thinks it's a movement....

                          Sung to the tune of Alice's Restaurant.....

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                          • Free to continue scurrying from eagles.
                            always and forever!

                            haha are you really like, trying to affirm some kind of ego delusion among the confused ambitions of the ruling class fools and stooges? Like the cannibal sorceror pederasts with their line-dancing men in boots and bondage bracelets and badges and barking commands and submissions must respect your place in their bedazzled moustache oxford tie status recognition spectacle?

                            all that shit's falsehood man, they can have that dimension all to themselves. I will stay warm in the dirt secure under a cannabis canopy with my lady and our foraging.
                            "Ah, those endless forests, and their horror-haunted gloom! For what eternities have I wandered through them, a timid, hunted creature, starting at the least sound, frightened of my own shadow, keyed-up, ever alert and vigilant, ready on the instant to dash away in mad flight for my life. For I was the prey of all manner of fierce life that dwelt in the forest, and it was in ecstasies of fear that I fled before the hunting monsters."

                            Jack london, "Before Adam"

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Him View Post
                              The choice any given person picks says less about the objective reality of the situation than about how the individual conceptualizes (understand), and tolerates (is willing to accept), risk. There is a lot of anecdotal evidence that these biases form early in childhood, and some scientific evidence that they may even have a genetic basis. That said, they can also be learned and people can be sensitized to different viewpoints as well.

                              Those biases will play out in a lot of ways. Whether and how a person saves money, the types of skills they learn, their political views and vision of an ideal government, ideal society, etc., their views on food safety, and so on. It isn't surprising at all that a deliberate Way Of Eating (a conscious choice, vs. following habit) would attract people with a certain conceptualization of risk, and that it would therefore correlate to political views, religious views, lifestyle choices, et cetera.
                              In addition to the conceptualization of risk, I'd add their reaction to the results of risk which are many: fear, death, pain, humiliation, separation from others, etc. Included in all these is the conceptualization of Power and it's same results.

                              I've noticed over my lifetime, that fear of, obedience to, and adolation of power has increased immencely(sp). I would even put the current desire for power above that of greed for money.

                              Originally posted by Him View Post
                              You know, if one person, just one person does it they may think he's really sick and they'll tazer him. And if two people, two people do it, in unison, they may think they're both faggots and take them out and beat them. But if three people, three, can you imagine, three people polishing their AR-15s and building their greenbean stockpile? They may think it's an organization. And, can you, can you imagine fifty people a day, I said fifty people a day polishing their AR-15s and buying gold bars and Galting out? And friends they may thinks it's a movement....

                              Sung to the tune of Alice's Restaurant.....
                              How else have all the Arab Sping countries overthrown their dictators, and are continuing to rebel. For many people, death is an acceptable risk. In our past, Americans were strong enough to oppose British armies.

                              Today, I think, given our media and activists and communication abilities, coordinating individuals with their AR-15s would stand an excellent chance against the Gov't. The Sheriff of Montana has stood off the IRS agents for several years now, backed up by his electorate. And there has been no action fighting.
                              "When the search for truth is confused with political advocacy, the pursuit of knowledge is reduced to the quest for power." - Alston Chase

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                              • This thread was definitely a joy to read, having seen big-picture opinions on what others think should be of our government.

                                While I haven't talked much or read up on many things related to politics, it seems to me that whatever government we have at the moment is the most efficient that we can get, given our technology, access to resources, culture, etc. etc. I think humans are amazingly adaptable and can be efficient at everything, even if it doesn't seem so on the surface.

                                For example, going back to the person who pushes the button every 10 minutes, who may seem to waste time. But at the same time, the time and energy that the person used to do the task was minimal, which creates a surplus for energy after work, when that person can use their creativity and physical energy on other endeavors once they get home. Even if it is only to do online shopping, which drives consumerism and helps to ramp the economy. Only someone with creative energy can make the choice to divert the (monetary) resources to something they enjoy and/or is creative anyway, and contributes to the system in a positive way. It ends up averaging out over time.

                                My idea is that our technology isn't advanced enough. It isn't good enough to automate everything, which would lead to an optimal, efficient system. If everything was automated, everybody would have the right information suited to themselves, which would help them make more focused, efficient decisions over the course of their lifetime. Instead, you have low-wage workers, who only know to appeal to the government in case things go sideways, which is obviously inefficient. We need to make our system efficient, since we as people are efficient operating in an inefficient system.

                                Over time, I think technology will definitely advance to a stage where we can operate in the society that you describe, Him. But up until then, we are stuck in this inefficient system, and those who are knowledgable can only try to accelerate the process to achieve that efficiency. So the only thing to do is allow life to move on, and if you are really passionate and knowledgable about something, go exert influence in that sphere, and maybe it'll help our system become efficient a little faster.

                                But I am just a naive lady in her early twenties, possibly biased from a religious, Asian perspective somehow. I had no interest in politics several months prior, and I only have a few years of business acumen. So I'd appreciate any thoughts on ripping apart my logic here
                                My chocolatey Primal journey

                                Unusual food recipes (plus chocolate) blog

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